While rates remain largely flat and fuel prices are easing, a closer look at the freight market reveals growing pressure points that could shift the landscape quickly. Tariffs, regulatory costs, and a sharp rise in insurance premiums are starting to reshape capacity, pricing, and equipment-specific trends. Here’s where the market stands now and what may come next.
Uncertainty Is Reshaping the Landscape
Trucking volume and capacity remain uncertain due to tariffs, regulations, and various cost factors. This creates ripple effects across the logistics sector, influencing both the availability of supply and pricing dynamics.
Utilization Holds, but Softening Ahead
Truck utilization remains steady according to FTR’s latest data. While there’s no immediate tightening of capacity, forecasts indicate some softening later this year, followed by a mild recovery in 2026. However, that picture could shift quickly. If rising insurance premiums and operating costs push more small carriers out of the market, the resulting contraction could lead to tighter capacity and increased rate pressure in early 2026.
Freight Volumes Show Nuanced Shifts
The outlook for total truckload volume has improved slightly, now projected at +0.2% year-over-year for 2025. But this overall number masks some significant shifts:
- Dry van: Volume remains weak at -0.9%, driven by sluggish consumer demand and continued softness in retail and durable goods.
- Refrigerated Freight: Slight growth at +0.4%, supported by improved movement in both food and non-food temperature-sensitive items.
- Flatbed: Still outperforming other modes year-over-year, but beginning to decline compared to earlier in the year. Weakness in construction materials and industrial freight is slowing momentum.
Truckload Rates Stable with Segmented Performance
Despite modest demand, the truckload rate forecast remains stable, with a projected year-over-year increase of +2.1% across 2025. Under the surface, however, the rate environment is evolving. Dry van segments are now gaining strength as contract pricing firms up, contrasting with earlier softness. Meanwhile, flatbed rates are slowing slightly, largely influenced by a cooling in the industrial and infrastructure sectors. Looking at order types, spot rates are experiencing renewed momentum, while contract rates have softened somewhat in recent forecasts.
Fuel Relief Offset by Rising Insurance
Diesel prices have fallen sharply following a ceasefire in the Middle East, bringing welcome relief to carriers after a brief spike in fuel costs. Crude oil prices are trending downward, and the short-term fuel outlook remains favorable.
Rising insurance premiums are becoming a major concern, driven by increased cargo theft, fraud, tariff-driven inflation in repair costs, and higher wage loss and hospitalization payouts. While recent trade agreements have brought short-term calm, tariffs on industrial metals and parts remain in place. These pressures are especially relevant to flatbed and specialized haulers serving the construction and manufacturing sectors.
Although the policy environment is relatively stable for now, even minor shifts could have an outsized impact in a market already operating on thin margins.
What Shippers Should Watch Now
- Capacity contraction: Monitor signs of smaller carriers exiting the market due to insurance and cost pressures.
- Segment-level rate movements: Dry van rates are rebounding, while flatbed rates are softening. Tailor procurement strategies to reflect these dynamics.
- Policy and regulatory shifts: Take advantage of softening diesel prices, but keep an eye on future tariff adjustments or geopolitical events that could quickly alter cost structures.
At a glance, the freight market seems stable: volumes are flat, rates are predictable, and fuel costs are declining. But beneath the surface, risk factors are growing, especially rising insurance costs and uneven demand across equipment types.
Carriers and shippers who remain agile, monitor cost pressures, and adjust their strategies by lane and segment will be better positioned to navigate what could be a significantly different market by early 2026.